Ararat-Armenia II vs Bentonit Ijevan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Ararat-Armenia II and 2.40 for Bentonit Ijevan, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Bentonit Ijevan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bentonit Ijevan win

69.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.95 – 2.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ararat-Armenia II home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bentonit Ijevan away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bentonit Ijevan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 13% / 17% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Ararat-Armenia II and 2.40 for Bentonit Ijevan, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Ararat-Armenia II win13%

Draw17%

Bentonit Ijevan win69%

Double chance 1X

31%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

87%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

0–210.1%
1–29.6%
0–18.4%
0–38.1%
1–18.0%

Recent form

Ararat-Armenia II

2026-10-13T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Araks Ararat · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-08T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Andranik · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-22T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Sardarapat 2 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bentonit Ijevan · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Banants II · 2-2 (D)

Bentonit Ijevan

2026-09-22T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Mika · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ararat-Armenia II · 5-3 (W)
2026-09-08T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Lernayin Artsakh · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BKMA II · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mika · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-03-13T11:30:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia II 2-0 Bentonit Ijevan (First League)
2025-09-28T11:30:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia II 2-1 Bentonit Ijevan (First League)
2024-11-22T10:00:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia II 1-2 Bentonit Ijevan (First League)
2024-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia II 1-1 Bentonit Ijevan (First League)

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Olympia Yerevan	9	7	2	0	16	23
2	Andranik	10	7	1	2	14	22
3	BKMA II	9	6	1	2	11	19
4	Bentonit Ijevan	9	5	3	1	10	18
5	Araks Ararat	9	4	3	2	4	15
6	Lernayin Artsakh	10	5	0	5	2	15
7	Mika	10	4	2	4	0	14
8	Pyunik II	10	3	3	4	-2	12
9	Shirak II	9	3	1	5	-11	10
10	Ararat II	8	3	1	4	1	10
11	Sardarapat 2	10	3	0	7	-7	9
12	Banants II	10	1	5	4	-9	8
13	Noah II	9	1	3	5	-15	6
14	Ararat-Armenia II	10	0	3	7	-14	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bentonit Ijevan win, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.