Football Academy Stadium · Analysis updated 14:11 UTC
Ararat-Armenia vs Alashkert Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Ararat-Armenia and 1.10 for Alashkert, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Ararat-Armenia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ararat-Armenia win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ararat-Armenia home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Alashkert away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–08.2%
Recent form
Ararat-Armenia
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Alashkert · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Ararat · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shirak · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Praha · 1-4 (L)
Alashkert
- 2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Syunik · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ararat-Armenia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyunik Yerevan · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sardarapat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Van · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-06T15:00:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia 1-1 Alashkert (Premier League)
- 2026-03-07T14:00:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia 0-1 Alashkert (Premier League)
- 2025-09-25T15:00:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia 2-1 Alashkert (Premier League)
- 2025-03-22T08:00:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia 0-1 Alashkert (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-03-15T12:00:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia 3-0 Alashkert (Premier League)
- 2024-11-27T11:00:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia 2-2 Alashkert (Premier League)
- 2024-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia 3-1 Alashkert (Premier League)
- 2024-05-26T13:00:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia 3-1 Alashkert (Premier League)
- 2024-04-04T12:00:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia 2-1 Alashkert (Premier League)
- 2023-11-30T10:30:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia 1-1 Alashkert (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Pyunik Yerevan | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Ararat-Armenia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | Alashkert | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 5 | FC Urartu | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sardarapat | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 7 | Shirak | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Ararat | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 9 | BKMA | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 10 | Van | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 7 |
| 11 | Syunik | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -16 | 5 |
| 12 | Gandzasar | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ararat-Armenia win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.