Football Academy Stadium · Analysis updated 11:58 UTC
Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Ararat-Armenia and 0.43 for Gandzasar, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Ararat-Armenia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ararat-Armenia win
78.4% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 0.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ararat-Armenia home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gandzasar away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–017.5%
- 1–015.9%
- 3–012.9%
- 2–17.5%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
Ararat-Armenia
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs BKMA · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Alashkert · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Ararat · 4-0 (W)
Gandzasar
- 2026-10-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyunik Yerevan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sardarapat · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Van · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Urartu · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ararat · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia 4-3 Gandzasar (Premier League)
- 2026-05-27T15:00:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia 1-0 Gandzasar (Premier League)
- 2025-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia 1-0 Gandzasar (Premier League)
- 2025-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia 1-0 Gandzasar (Premier League)
- 2025-04-25T12:00:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia 4-0 Gandzasar (Premier League)
- 2024-11-21T14:00:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia 3-0 Gandzasar (Premier League)
- 2024-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia 3-0 Gandzasar (Premier League)
- 2023-11-24T14:00:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia 1-0 Gandzasar (Cup)
- 2020-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · Ararat-Armenia 1-1 Gandzasar (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 28 |
| 2 | Pyunik Yerevan | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Ararat-Armenia | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Alashkert | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 5 | FC Urartu | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Sardarapat | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 | Shirak | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Ararat | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 9 | Van | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -17 | 10 |
| 10 | Syunik | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 8 |
| 11 | BKMA | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 12 | Gandzasar | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ararat-Armenia win, at 78.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.