Ararat II vs Shirak II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Ararat II and 1.90 for Shirak II, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Shirak II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ararat II home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Shirak II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Ararat II win36%

Draw22%

Shirak II win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

1–18.6%
1–28.2%
2–17.6%
2–27.2%
1–35.2%

Recent form

Ararat II

2026-08-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Shirak II · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Araks Ararat · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Andranik · 0-4 (L)
2026-05-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Syunik · 0-4 (L)
2026-05-21T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Andranik · 1-6 (L)

Shirak II

2026-10-09T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Pyunik II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-21T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Noah II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympia Yerevan · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Ararat II · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-15T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Araks Ararat · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-19T12:30:00.000Z · Ararat II 1-2 Shirak II (First League)
2026-04-30T12:00:00.000Z · Ararat II 2-1 Shirak II (First League)
2025-09-27T11:30:00.000Z · Ararat II 3-1 Shirak II (First League)
2025-03-10T11:00:00.000Z · Ararat II 1-2 Shirak II (First League)
2024-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · Ararat II 4-6 Shirak II (First League)
2023-12-06T10:00:00.000Z · Ararat II 6-1 Shirak II (First League)
2023-08-07T13:30:00.000Z · Ararat II 0-3 Shirak II (First League)
2023-05-09T12:00:00.000Z · Ararat II 1-1 Shirak II (First League)
2022-12-01T10:00:00.000Z · Ararat II 2-1 Shirak II (First League)
2022-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · Ararat II 1-0 Shirak II (First League)

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Olympia Yerevan	9	7	2	0	16	23
2	Andranik	10	7	1	2	14	22
3	BKMA II	9	6	1	2	11	19
4	Bentonit Ijevan	9	5	3	1	10	18
5	Araks Ararat	9	4	3	2	4	15
6	Lernayin Artsakh	10	5	0	5	2	15
7	Mika	10	4	2	4	0	14
8	Pyunik II	10	3	3	4	-2	12
9	Shirak II	9	3	1	5	-11	10
10	Ararat II	8	3	1	4	1	10
11	Sardarapat 2	10	3	0	7	-7	9
12	Banants II	10	1	5	4	-9	8
13	Noah II	9	1	3	5	-15	6
14	Ararat-Armenia II	10	0	3	7	-14	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.