Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium · Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
Ararat vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Ararat and 2.23 for Ararat-Armenia, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Ararat-Armenia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ararat-Armenia win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 2.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ararat home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ararat-Armenia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ararat-Armenia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 21% / 20% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Ararat and 2.23 for Ararat-Armenia, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.6%
- 1–18.6%
- 0–27.7%
- 1–37.1%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Ararat
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Syunik · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gandzasar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Noah · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyunik Yerevan · 0-2 (L)
Ararat-Armenia
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Alashkert · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Ararat · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shirak · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Praha · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Syunik · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Ararat-Armenia | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | Pyunik Yerevan | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 18 |
| 4 | Alashkert | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 5 | Sardarapat | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | FC Urartu | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Shirak | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Ararat | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 9 | BKMA | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Van | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -17 | 4 |
| 11 | Gandzasar | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 3 |
| 12 | Syunik | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ararat-Armenia win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.