Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium · Analysis updated 06:19 UTC
Ararat vs FC Noah Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.79 expected goals for Ararat and 2.25 for FC Noah, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives FC Noah the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Noah win
70.5% probability
Expected goals
0.79 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ararat home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Noah away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Noah to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 12% / 18% / 71% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.79 goals for Ararat and 2.25 for FC Noah, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.1%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–39.1%
- 1–18.5%
Recent form
Ararat
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Shirak · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Urartu · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Syunik · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gandzasar · 2-0 (W)
FC Noah
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sardarapat · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Batumi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Van · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Urartu · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gandzasar · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 28 |
| 2 | Pyunik Yerevan | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Ararat-Armenia | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Alashkert | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 5 | FC Urartu | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Sardarapat | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 | Shirak | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Ararat | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 9 | Van | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -17 | 10 |
| 10 | Syunik | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 8 |
| 11 | BKMA | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 12 | Gandzasar | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Noah win, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.