· Analysis updated 15:08 UTC
Araz vs Neftchi Baku Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Araz and 1.90 for Neftchi Baku, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Neftchi Baku the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Neftchi Baku win
62.7% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Araz home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Neftchi Baku away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Neftchi Baku to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 16% / 22% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Araz and 1.90 for Neftchi Baku, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.5%
- 0–211.8%
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–37.5%
Recent form
Araz
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kapaz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Şamaxı FK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Turan · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Qarabag · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabah FA · 0-1 (L)
Neftchi Baku
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Imisli FK · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Zira · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Araz · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Neftchi Baku win, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.