· Analysis updated 14:58 UTC
Araz vs Qarabag Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Araz and 2.19 for Qarabag, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Qarabag the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Qarabag win
66.0% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 2.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Araz home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Qarabag away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Qarabag to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 15% / 19% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Araz and 2.19 for Qarabag, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.5%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–19.0%
- 0–37.7%
Recent form
Araz
- 2026-10-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Qabala · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sumqayıt · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kapaz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Şamaxı FK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Turan · 2-2 (D)
Qarabag
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Imisli FK · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Araz · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Qarabag win, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.