Araz vs Sabah FA Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.55 expected goals for Araz and 2.43 for Sabah FA, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Sabah FA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sabah FA win

79.0% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.55 – 2.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Araz home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sabah FA away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sabah FA to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 7% / 15% / 79% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.55 goals for Araz and 2.43 for Sabah FA, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Araz win7%

Draw15%

Sabah FA win79%

Double chance 1X

21%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

94%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

0–215.0%
0–112.4%
0–312.2%
1–28.2%
0–47.4%

Recent form

Araz

2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kapaz · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Şamaxı FK · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Turan · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Qarabag · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabah FA · 0-1 (L)

Sabah FA

2026-10-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi Baku · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Safa Baku · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Zira · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premyer Liqa table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Neftchi Baku	7	5	1	1	13	16
2	Sabah FA	6	5	1	0	13	16
3	Qarabag	6	5	1	0	7	16
4	Turan	7	4	2	1	3	14
5	Zira	7	3	2	2	-1	11
6	Kapaz	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	Şamaxı FK	7	2	4	1	2	10
8	Sumqayıt	6	1	2	3	-1	5
9	Qabala	7	1	1	5	-8	4
10	Imisli FK	7	1	1	5	-7	4
11	Safa Baku	7	1	0	6	-10	3
12	Araz	7	0	2	5	-10	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sabah FA win, at 79.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.