Shamakhi City Stadium · Referee E. Masiyev · Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Araz vs Turan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.71 expected goals for Araz and 1.45 for Turan, a combined total of 2.16. That distribution gives Turan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Turan win
54.8% probability
Expected goals
0.71 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Araz home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Turan away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Turan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 18% / 27% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.71 goals for Araz and 1.45 for Turan, a combined 2.16 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.7%
- 0–212.1%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–011.5%
- 1–28.6%
Recent form
Araz
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kapaz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Şamaxı FK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Turan · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Qarabag · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabah FA · 0-1 (L)
Turan
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Zira · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Araz · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sumqayıt · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Turan win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.