· Analysis updated 13:47 UTC
Araz vs Zira Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Araz and 1.45 for Zira, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Araz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Araz home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zira away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Araz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 24% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Araz and 1.45 for Zira, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.0%
- 1–07.6%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Araz
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kapaz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Şamaxı FK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Turan · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Qarabag · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabah FA · 0-1 (L)
Zira
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Turan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.