Gayfield Park · Analysis updated 07:29 UTC
Arbroath vs Ayr Utd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.84 expected goals for Arbroath and 1.17 for Ayr Utd, a combined total of 2.01. That distribution gives Ayr Utd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
73.6% probability
Expected goals
0.84 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arbroath home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ayr Utd away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ayr Utd to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 26% / 30% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.84 goals for Arbroath and 1.17 for Ayr Utd, a combined 2.01 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.7%
- 0–013.4%
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–29.2%
Recent form
Arbroath
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Partick · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Queen's Park · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stenhousemuir · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Raith Rovers · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunfermline · 1-1 (D)
Ayr Utd
- 2026-10-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Partick · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunfermline · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Livingston · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stenhousemuir · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Queen's Park · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Livingston | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -13 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.