Gayfield Park · Referee A. Grieve · Analysis updated 21:58 UTC
Arbroath vs Dunfermline Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.62 expected goals for Arbroath and 1.09 for Dunfermline, a combined total of 1.71. That distribution gives Dunfermline the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dunfermline win
46.9% probability
Expected goals
0.62 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dunfermline to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 21% / 33% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.62 goals for Arbroath and 1.09 for Dunfermline, a combined 1.71 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 25% and both teams to score at 31%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 20%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 47% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–119.8%
- 0–018.1%
- 1–112.2%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–210.8%
Recent form
Arbroath
Dunfermline
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Partick | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Livingston | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 11 |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dunfermline win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.