Gayfield Park · Referee C. Graham · Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
Arbroath vs Queen's Park Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Arbroath and 0.63 for Queen's Park, a combined total of 1.68. That distribution gives Arbroath the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Arbroath win
45.2% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arbroath home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Queen's Park away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.7%
- 0–018.7%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–111.7%
- 2–010.3%
Recent form
Arbroath
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Partick · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Queen's Park · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stenhousemuir · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Raith Rovers · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunfermline · 1-1 (D)
Queen's Park
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morton · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Inverness CT · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Raith Rovers · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Arbroath · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Ayr Utd · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · Arbroath 2-1 Queen's Park (Championship)
- 2026-03-21T15:00:00.000Z · Arbroath 1-0 Queen's Park (Championship)
- 2026-01-31T15:00:00.000Z · Arbroath 1-2 Queen's Park (Championship)
- 2025-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · Arbroath 4-1 Queen's Park (Championship)
- 2025-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · Arbroath 3-1 Queen's Park (Championship)
- 2024-04-27T14:00:00.000Z · Arbroath 0-5 Queen's Park (Championship)
- 2024-02-27T19:45:00.000Z · Arbroath 0-6 Queen's Park (Championship)
- 2023-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · Arbroath 0-1 Queen's Park (Championship)
- 2023-08-12T14:00:00.000Z · Arbroath 1-2 Queen's Park (Championship)
- 2023-03-24T19:45:00.000Z · Arbroath 1-0 Queen's Park (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Partick | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Livingston | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 11 |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arbroath win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.