Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Arda Kardzhali and 1.30 for Botev Plovdiv, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Arda Kardzhali the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Arda Kardzhali win

46.2% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Arda Kardzhali home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Botev Plovdiv away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arda Kardzhali to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Arda Kardzhali and 1.30 for Botev Plovdiv, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Arda Kardzhali win46%

Draw24%

Botev Plovdiv win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.1%
2–19.3%
1–08.6%
1–27.2%
2–07.2%

Recent form

Arda Kardzhali

2026-10-02T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cherno More Varna · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Sofia · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-04T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Botev Plovdiv · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-31T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Botev Vratsa · 2-0 (W)

Botev Plovdiv

2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Sofia · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-04T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Arda Kardzhali · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Botev Vratsa · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	9	8	1	0	17	25
2	CSKA Sofia	10	7	3	0	17	24
3	Ludogorets	9	7	2	0	9	23
4	CSKA 1948	10	7	1	2	9	22
5	Arda Kardzhali	10	5	2	3	3	17
6	Botev Plovdiv	10	5	1	4	2	16
7	Slavia Sofia	10	2	5	3	1	11
8	Spartak Varna	10	2	4	4	-5	10
9	Botev Vratsa	10	2	3	5	-10	9
10	Septemvri Sofia	10	2	2	6	-10	8
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	10	1	4	5	-7	7
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	10	2	1	7	-8	7
13	Cherno More Varna	10	1	3	6	-9	6
14	Dunav Ruse	10	1	2	7	-9	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Arda Kardzhali win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.