Arena Arda · Referee Radoslav Gidzhenov, Bulgaria · Analysis updated 14:42 UTC
Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Arda Kardzhali and 0.90 for Lokomotiv Sofia, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Arda Kardzhali the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Arda Kardzhali win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arda Kardzhali home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lokomotiv Sofia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.5%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–011.4%
- 0–110.2%
- 2–09.2%
Recent form
Arda Kardzhali
- 2026-10-02T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cherno More Varna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Sofia · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Botev Plovdiv · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-31T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Botev Vratsa · 2-0 (W)
Lokomotiv Sofia
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnicki NIS · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Varna · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cherno More Varna · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Ludogorets · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-17T18:15:00.000Z · Arda Kardzhali 3-1 Lokomotiv Sofia (First League)
- 2025-11-28T13:00:00.000Z · Arda Kardzhali 0-0 Lokomotiv Sofia (First League)
- 2025-07-27T19:00:00.000Z · Arda Kardzhali 1-1 Lokomotiv Sofia (First League)
- 2025-04-13T12:00:00.000Z · Arda Kardzhali 5-0 Lokomotiv Sofia (First League)
- 2024-11-02T10:00:00.000Z · Arda Kardzhali 2-0 Lokomotiv Sofia (First League)
- 2023-12-09T10:30:00.000Z · Arda Kardzhali 1-0 Lokomotiv Sofia (First League)
- 2023-08-11T16:00:00.000Z · Arda Kardzhali 1-0 Lokomotiv Sofia (First League)
- 2023-07-01T15:00:00.000Z · Arda Kardzhali 2-4 Lokomotiv Sofia (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-05-29T14:30:00.000Z · Arda Kardzhali 3-1 Lokomotiv Sofia (First League)
- 2023-05-14T14:45:00.000Z · Arda Kardzhali 3-0 Lokomotiv Sofia (First League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arda Kardzhali win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.