· Analysis updated 00:42 UTC
Ards vs Dundela Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for Ards and 1.51 for Dundela, a combined total of 3.96. That distribution gives Ards the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws roughly 42% of the time.
Model pick
Ards to Win
58.2% probability
Expected goals
2.45 – 1.51
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 3–17.1%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–05.7%
Why the model likes this
Dundela away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ards to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 19% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.45 goals for Ards and 1.51 for Dundela, a combined 3.96 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 71%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
Ards
Dundela
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Annagh United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ards · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Moyola Park · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crusaders FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangor · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.