· Analysis updated 07:29 UTC
Ards vs Loughgall Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Ards and 1.63 for Loughgall, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Loughgall the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ards home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Loughgall away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–18.2%
- 0–16.8%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Ards
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Institute · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newington Youth · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ballinamallard United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Strabane Athletic · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Moyola Park · 0-0 (D)
Loughgall
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Strabane Athletic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Moyola Park · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newry City AFC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Glenavon FC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Armagh City · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · Ards 1-2 Loughgall (Championship)
- 2026-03-10T19:45:00.000Z · Ards 1-0 Loughgall (Championship)
- 2025-12-06T15:00:00.000Z · Ards 1-1 Loughgall (Championship)
- 2025-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · Ards 1-1 Loughgall (Championship)
- 2025-03-01T15:00:00.000Z · Ards 2-0 Loughgall (Irish Cup)
- 2024-08-03T13:00:00.000Z · Ards 1-1 Loughgall (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-04-08T14:00:00.000Z · Ards 0-5 Loughgall (Championship)
- 2023-02-18T15:00:00.000Z · Ards 0-3 Loughgall (Championship)
- 2022-10-29T14:00:00.000Z · Ards 1-6 Loughgall (Championship)
- 2022-08-19T18:45:00.000Z · Ards 0-5 Loughgall (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Annagh United | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Glenavon FC | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 24 |
| 3 | Newington Youth | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 4 | Queen's University | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 20 |
| 5 | Institute | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| 6 | Newry City AFC | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 19 |
| 7 | Warrenpoint Town | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Ballinamallard United | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 9 | H&W Welders | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | Ards | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 11 | Loughgall | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -6 | 14 |
| 12 | Moyola Park | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 13 | Rathfriland | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 | Dundela | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Strabane Athletic | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 16 | Armagh City | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.