Arema FC vs PSM Makassar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.62 expected goals for Arema FC and 1.66 for PSM Makassar, a combined total of 4.27. That distribution gives Arema FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Arema FC win

58.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.62 – 1.66

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Arema FC home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
PSM Makassar away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arema FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 18% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.62 goals for Arema FC and 1.66 for PSM Makassar, a combined 4.27 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Arema FC win58%

Draw18%

PSM Makassar win24%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals80%

Over 3.5 goals62%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

2–17.9%
3–16.9%
2–26.6%
1–16.0%
3–25.7%

Recent form

Arema FC

2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persija · 1-5 (L)
2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Garudayaksa · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bhayangkara FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persik Kediri · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSM Makassar · 3-3 (D)

PSM Makassar

2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persita · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Arema FC · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persib Bandung · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-23T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Persepam Madura Utd · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Persib Bandung · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persija	6	5	0	1	10	15
2	Dewa United	7	4	2	1	2	14
3	Bali United	7	4	1	2	12	13
4	Persepam Madura Utd	6	4	1	1	4	13
5	Persib Bandung	7	4	1	2	3	13
6	Persita	6	3	3	0	3	12
7	Bhayangkara FC	6	2	4	0	3	10
8	Persik Kediri	6	3	1	2	3	10
9	Arema FC	7	2	3	2	2	9
10	Persebaya Surabaya	6	2	3	1	1	9
11	PSM Makassar	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Java United	7	2	3	2	0	7
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
14	Garudayaksa	7	1	2	4	-7	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	1	1	4	-2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	7	1	2	4	-9	3
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	7	0	2	5	-8	2
18	Persijap	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Arema FC win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.