· Analysis updated 16:41 UTC
Arenas Armilla vs Mancha Real Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Arenas Armilla and 0.76 for Mancha Real, a combined total of 3.02. That distribution gives Arenas Armilla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Arenas Armilla win
71.2% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arenas Armilla home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Mancha Real away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.4%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–09.3%
- 1–18.4%
Recent form
Arenas Armilla
- 2026-10-18T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Alhaurino · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Malaga City · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Torre del Mar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Huétor Vega · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno · 1-1 (D)
Mancha Real
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaga City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Torre del Mar · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Huétor Vega · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico de Marbella · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · Arenas Armilla 1-0 Mancha Real (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)
- 2026-03-01T11:00:00.000Z · Arenas Armilla 2-0 Mancha Real (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)
- 2025-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · Arenas Armilla 0-0 Mancha Real (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)
- 2025-02-09T11:00:00.000Z · Arenas Armilla 2-1 Mancha Real (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)
- 2024-09-29T17:00:00.000Z · Arenas Armilla 2-1 Mancha Real (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)
- 2024-02-25T16:00:00.000Z · Arenas Armilla 0-0 Mancha Real (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)
- 2023-10-15T10:00:00.000Z · Arenas Armilla 2-1 Mancha Real (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melilla | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Almería II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Arenas Armilla | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Motril | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Marbelli | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | UD San Pedro | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Málaga II | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Churriana Vega | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Granada II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Atlético Porcuna | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 10 |
| 12 | Alhaurino | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Torre del Mar | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Huétor Vega | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Atletico de Marbella | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Mancha Real | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Cantoria | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Malaga City | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arenas Armilla win, at 71.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.