Arenas Armilla vs Motril Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Arenas Armilla and 1.04 for Motril, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Arenas Armilla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Arenas Armilla win

50.2% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.59 – 1.04

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Arenas Armilla home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Motril away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arenas Armilla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 25% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Arenas Armilla and 1.04 for Motril, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Arenas Armilla win50%

Draw25%

Motril win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–111.9%
1–011.4%
2–19.5%
2–09.1%
0–17.5%

Recent form

Arenas Armilla

2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Peña Deportiva · 2-5 (L)
2026-06-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Peña Deportiva · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Motril · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Motril · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-24T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Torre del Mar · 1-0 (W)

Motril

2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UD San Pedro · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Alhaurino · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Malaga City · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Torre del Mar · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo Huelva · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Melilla	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	Arenas Armilla	6	4	2	0	8	14
3	Almería II	6	4	1	1	7	13
4	Marbelli	6	4	1	1	3	13
5	Motril	6	3	3	0	4	12
6	Málaga II	6	3	1	2	6	10
7	Granada II	6	3	1	2	4	10
8	Churriana Vega	6	3	0	3	3	9
9	UD San Pedro	6	3	0	3	-3	9
10	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Torre del Mar	6	2	1	3	0	7
12	Alhaurino	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Atlético Porcuna	6	2	1	3	-8	7
14	Huétor Vega	6	1	2	3	-4	5
15	Atletico de Marbella	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Cantoria	6	0	3	3	-6	3
17	Mancha Real	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Malaga City	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Arenas Armilla win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.