· Analysis updated 16:39 UTC
Arenas Armilla vs Peña Deportiva Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Arenas Armilla and 2.26 for Peña Deportiva, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Peña Deportiva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Peña Deportiva win
54.8% probability
Expected goals
1.49 – 2.26
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arenas Armilla home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Peña Deportiva away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Peña Deportiva to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 25% / 20% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Arenas Armilla and 2.26 for Peña Deportiva, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.9%
- 1–17.9%
- 1–36.7%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–26.0%
Recent form
Arenas Armilla
- 2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Peña Deportiva · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-06-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Peña Deportiva · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Motril · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Motril · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Torre del Mar · 1-0 (W)
Peña Deportiva
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Orihuela · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Valencia II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Elche II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Yeclano · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peña Deportiva | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Atlético Central | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Badajoz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Real Murcia II | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | La Nucía | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Compostela | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Tamaraceite | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Albacete II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Arnedo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Tropezón | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Badalona II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Guijuelo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Leioa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Cuarte | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Pamplona | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Trival Valderas | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 17 | Caudal | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 18 | Arenas Armilla | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Peña Deportiva win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.