Estadio Municipal de Fadura · Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
Arenas Getxo vs Racing Ferrol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.79 expected goals for Arenas Getxo and 1.75 for Racing Ferrol, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Racing Ferrol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Racing Ferrol win
60.1% probability
Expected goals
0.79 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arenas Getxo home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Racing Ferrol away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Racing Ferrol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 17% / 23% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.79 goals for Arenas Getxo and 1.75 for Racing Ferrol, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.8%
- 0–212.1%
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–07.9%
Recent form
Arenas Getxo
- 2026-09-20T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Cacereño · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Zamora · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Pontevedra · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Ferrol · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Laredo · 0-1 (L)
Racing Ferrol
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Pontevedra · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lugo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Barakaldo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Unión · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Extremadura 1924 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Athletic Club II | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Cacereño | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Mirandes | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Zamora | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Cultural Leonesa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Ponferradina | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Real Unión | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Extremadura 1924 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Mérida AD | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Real Avilés | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 14 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Pontevedra | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Barakaldo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | CD Coria | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Racing Ferrol win, at 60.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.