Norac stadion · Analysis updated 20:16 UTC
Arendal vs Lysekloster Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Arendal and 1.18 for Lysekloster, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Arendal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Arendal win
59.1% probability
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lysekloster away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arendal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 21% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Arendal and 1.18 for Lysekloster, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 61%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–08.3%
- 1–07.8%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Arendal
Lysekloster
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Træff · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eik-Tønsberg · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs jerv · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandviken · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pors Grenland · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Division - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | jerv | 24 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 27 | 56 |
| 2 | Brattvåg | 25 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 51 |
| 3 | Bjarg | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 50 |
| 4 | Mjondalen | 25 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 50 |
| 5 | Sotra | 25 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 45 |
| 6 | Notodden | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 35 |
| 7 | Træff | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | -7 | 35 |
| 8 | Kvik Halden | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | -1 | 34 |
| 9 | Arendal | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 31 |
| 10 | Pors Grenland | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | -3 | 30 |
| 11 | Sandviken | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -15 | 26 |
| 12 | Lysekloster | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -18 | 22 |
| 13 | Eik-Tønsberg | 25 | 4 | 1 | 20 | -28 | 13 |
| 14 | Vidar | 25 | 3 | 4 | 18 | -42 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arendal win, at 59.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.