Gradski stadion Gostivar · Analysis updated 16:28 UTC
Aresimi vs Bashkimi Kumanovo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Aresimi and 1.31 for Bashkimi Kumanovo, a combined total of 3.24. That distribution gives Aresimi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aresimi win
51.8% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.31
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aresimi home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Bashkimi Kumanovo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.6%
- 2–07.3%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
Aresimi
- 2026-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mogila · 12-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Struga · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Shkendija · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vardar Skopje · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Skopje · 0-0 (D)
Bashkimi Kumanovo
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sileks · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Struga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gjilani · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Drita · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkendija · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-14T14:30:00.000Z · Aresimi 1-0 Bashkimi Kumanovo (First League)
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · Aresimi 1-1 Bashkimi Kumanovo (First League)
- 2025-11-03T12:30:00.000Z · Aresimi 4-2 Bashkimi Kumanovo (First League)
- 2025-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · Aresimi 1-1 Bashkimi Kumanovo (First League)
- 2025-03-01T13:00:00.000Z · Aresimi 1-2 Bashkimi Kumanovo (Second League)
- 2024-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · Aresimi 0-1 Bashkimi Kumanovo (Second League)
- 2024-04-30T14:00:00.000Z · Aresimi 2-0 Bashkimi Kumanovo (Second League)
- 2023-11-12T12:00:00.000Z · Aresimi 2-1 Bashkimi Kumanovo (Second League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Struga | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 17 |
| 5 | Sileks | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Štip | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -13 | 10 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 10 | Skopje | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aresimi win, at 51.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.