· Analysis updated 09:17 UTC
Aresimi vs Shkëndija Haraçinë Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Aresimi and 1.30 for Shkëndija Haraçinë, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Aresimi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aresimi home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shkëndija Haraçinë away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aresimi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 26% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Aresimi and 1.30 for Shkëndija Haraçinë, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Aresimi
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bregalnica Štip · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tikveš · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Sileks · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mogila · 12-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Struga · 0-6 (L)
Shkëndija Haraçinë
- 2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sileks · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Struga · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Shkendija · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vardar Skopje · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skopje · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · Aresimi 2-0 Shkëndija Haraçinë (First League)
- 2026-07-04T15:00:00.000Z · Aresimi 1-1 Shkëndija Haraçinë (Friendlies Clubs)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Struga | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 20 |
| 5 | Sileks | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Štip | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -14 | 10 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -22 | 7 |
| 10 | Skopje | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.