Aretxabaleta vs Derio Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Aretxabaleta and 0.98 for Derio, a combined total of 1.96. That distribution gives Aretxabaleta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.99 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Aretxabaleta home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Derio away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aretxabaleta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 31% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Aretxabaleta and 0.98 for Derio, a combined 1.96 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Aretxabaleta win35%

Draw31%

Derio win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals58%

Over 2.5 goals31%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

0–014.1%
1–013.9%
0–113.7%
1–113.5%
2–06.8%

Recent form

Aretxabaleta

2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Pasaia KE · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lagun Onak · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Derio · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Durango · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Beasain · 0-0 (D)

Derio

2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Aretxabaleta · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santurtzi · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Salamanca UDS · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs San Ignacio · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Compostela · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	6	4	1	1	2	13
2	Leioa	6	3	3	0	10	12
3	Derio	6	3	3	0	5	12
4	Real Sociedad III	6	3	2	1	3	11
5	Aretxabaleta	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Deportivo Alavés III	6	3	1	2	7	10
7	Pasaia KE	6	3	1	2	-1	10
8	San Ignacio	6	2	2	2	2	8
9	Touring	6	2	2	2	1	8
10	Sodupe	6	2	2	2	-4	8
11	Durango	6	1	4	1	0	7
12	Beasain	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Lagun Onak	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Erandio	6	2	0	4	-2	6
15	Santurtzi	6	2	0	4	-4	6
16	Eibar III	6	1	2	3	-1	5
17	R. Union B	6	1	2	3	-5	5
18	Amurrio Club	6	0	1	5	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.