· Referee N. Simon · Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Argentina U17 W vs New Zealand U17 W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.71 expected goals for Argentina U17 W and 1.80 for New Zealand U17 W, a combined total of 4.51. That distribution gives Argentina U17 W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Argentina U17 W win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
2.71 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Argentina U17 W home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Argentina U17 W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 18% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.71 goals for Argentina U17 W and 1.80 for New Zealand U17 W, a combined 4.51 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 83% and both teams to score at 78%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.3%
- 3–16.6%
- 2–26.5%
- 3–25.9%
- 1–15.4%
Recent form
Argentina U17 W
- 2026-10-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs New Zealand U17 W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Germany U17 W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs South Africa U17 W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-27T22:30:00.000Z · A vs South Africa U17 W · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-05-10T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Chile U17 W · 2-1 (W)
New Zealand U17 W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
World Cup - U17 - Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco U17 W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | Germany U17 W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Argentina U17 W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 4 | New Zealand U17 W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | North Korea U17 W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 2 | Poland U17 W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Nigeria U17 W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 4 | Puerto Rico W U17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 1 | Brazil U17 W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | Norway U17 W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Ghana U17 W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 4 | Canada W U17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Japan U17 W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | France U17 W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Venezuela U17 W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 4 | Zambia U17 W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 1 | United States W U17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 3 |
| 2 | China PR U17 W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Kenya U17 W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 4 | Samoa U17 W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -17 | 0 |
| 1 | Spain U17 W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Australia U17 W | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Chile U17 W | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Mexico U17 W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Argentina U17 W win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.