· Analysis updated 09:17 UTC
Argentina U19 vs Uruguay U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Argentina U19 and 1.00 for Uruguay U19, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Argentina U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Argentina U19 win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Uruguay U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Argentina U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 27% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Argentina U19 and 1.00 for Uruguay U19, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.8%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–09.1%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–08.9%
Recent form
Argentina U19
- 2026-09-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Peru U19 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Venezuela U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Uruguay U19 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Paraguay U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2022-10-08T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Ecuador U19 · 3-0 (W)
Uruguay U19
- 2026-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Paraguay U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentina U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezuela U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2022-10-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Colombia U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2022-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Ecuador U19 · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Argentina U19 win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.