Estadio Carfem · Analysis updated 16:19 UTC
Argentina U20 W vs Paraguay U20 W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.54 expected goals for Argentina U20 W and 0.86 for Paraguay U20 W, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Argentina U20 W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Argentina U20 W win
73.7% probability
Expected goals
2.54 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Argentina U20 W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Argentina U20 W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 16% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.54 goals for Argentina U20 W and 0.86 for Paraguay U20 W, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 53%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–09.1%
- 1–08.5%
- 3–17.8%
Recent form
Argentina U20 W
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Korea Republic U20 W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mexico U20 W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Benin U20 W · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Poland U20 W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs USA U19 W · 1-3 (L)
Paraguay U20 W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONMEBOL U20 Femenino table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil U20 W | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Argentina U20 W | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 19 |
| 3 | Ecuador U20 W | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 17 |
| 4 | Colombia U20 W | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 5 | Venezuela U20 W | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 6 | Paraguay U20 W | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 7 | Uruguay U20 W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 8 | Peru U20 W | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 3 |
| 9 | Chile U20 W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 10 | Bolivia U20 W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Argentina U20 W win, at 73.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.