Alberto Jose Armando · Referee D. Lopez · Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Argentina vs Mauritania Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.12 expected goals for Argentina and 1.04 for Mauritania, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Argentina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Argentina win
62.2% probability
Expected goals
2.12 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Argentina home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mauritania away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Argentina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 20% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.12 goals for Argentina and 1.04 for Mauritania, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.6%
- 1–19.3%
- 1–09.0%
- 3–17.0%
Recent form
Argentina
- 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Burkina Faso · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolivia · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-07-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Spain · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs England · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-12T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Switzerland · 3-1 (W)
Mauritania
- 2026-09-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Benin · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Central African Republic · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Niger · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Angola · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-27T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Argentina · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Argentina win, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.