Estadio Modesto Marrone · Analysis updated 18:14 UTC
Argentino Monte Maíz vs Atenas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Argentino Monte Maíz and 0.62 for Atenas, a combined total of 1.60. That distribution gives Argentino Monte Maíz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
77.7% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 0.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Argentino Monte Maíz home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atenas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Argentino Monte Maíz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 34% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Argentino Monte Maíz and 0.62 for Atenas, a combined 1.60 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–020.1%
- 1–019.8%
- 0–112.4%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–09.8%
Recent form
Argentino Monte Maíz
- 2026-08-30T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Antoniana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Alvarado · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cipolletti · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atenas · 1-2 (L)
Atenas
- 2026-09-27T22:30:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracan Las Heras · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Antoniana · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alvarado · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 77.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.