Estadio Modesto Marrone · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Argentino Monte Maíz vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for Argentino Monte Maíz and 0.83 for Olimpo Bahia Blanca, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives Argentino Monte Maíz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.1% probability
Expected goals
0.87 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Argentino Monte Maíz home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Olimpo Bahia Blanca away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–018.3%
- 1–015.9%
- 0–115.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 2–06.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.6%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.42 | 63.6% | 65.9% | 1.52 | +2.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.65 | 33.8% | 34.0% | 2.94 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.62 | 34.2% | 34.1% | 2.93 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.80 | 32.0% | 31.9% | 3.13 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 66.9% | 66.0% | 1.52 | -0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 69.5% | 68.1% | 1.47 | -1.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Argentino Monte Maíz
- 2026-08-30T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Antoniana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Alvarado · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cipolletti · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atenas · 1-2 (L)
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alvarado · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · Argentino Monte Maíz 1-1 Olimpo Bahia Blanca (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-07-20T18:05:00.000Z · Argentino Monte Maíz 1-2 Olimpo Bahia Blanca (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-08-04T18:30:00.000Z · Argentino Monte Maíz 1-0 Olimpo Bahia Blanca (Torneo Federal A)
- 2022-10-16T19:30:00.000Z · Argentino Monte Maíz 0-2 Olimpo Bahia Blanca (Torneo Federal A)
- 2022-07-03T19:00:00.000Z · Argentino Monte Maíz 0-1 Olimpo Bahia Blanca (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.