Estadio Modesto Marrone · Analysis updated 22:26 UTC
Argentino Monte Maíz vs Villa Mitre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Argentino Monte Maíz and 0.70 for Villa Mitre, a combined total of 1.53. That distribution gives Argentino Monte Maíz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.8% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Argentino Monte Maíz home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Villa Mitre away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 36% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Argentino Monte Maíz and 0.70 for Villa Mitre, a combined 1.53 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.8%
- 1–018.0%
- 0–115.2%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–07.4%
Recent form
Argentino Monte Maíz
- 2026-08-30T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Antoniana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Alvarado · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cipolletti · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atenas · 1-2 (L)
Villa Mitre
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Kimberley Mar del Plata · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Argentino Monte Maíz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Huracan Las Heras · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventud Antoniana · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Alvarado · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.