Estadio Diego Armando Maradona · Referee S. Martinez · Analysis updated 14:58 UTC
Argentinos JRS vs Gimnasia L.P. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Argentinos JRS and 0.71 for Gimnasia L.P., a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Argentinos JRS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Argentinos JRS win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 0.71
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Argentinos JRS home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnasia L.P. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Argentinos JRS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 28% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Argentinos JRS and 0.71 for Gimnasia L.P., a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.0%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–011.8%
- 0–18.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 61.8% vs market 52.7%, edge +9.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.75 | 52.7% | 61.8% | 1.62 | +9.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.05 | 46.2% | 46.8% | 2.14 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.73 | 53.1% | 53.2% | 1.88 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.80 | 19.1% | 19.1% | 5.24 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 80.9% | 80.9% | 1.24 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.8% | 27.7% | 3.61 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.9% | 72.3% | 1.38 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.95 | 47.3% | 38.2% | 2.62 | -9.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Argentinos JRS
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Tigre · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosario Central · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central · 0-0 (D)
Gimnasia L.P.
- 2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Independ. Rivadavia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos JRS · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Tigre · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Argentinos JRS win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.