Estadio Diego Armando Maradona · Referee A. Gariano · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Argentinos JRS vs Tigre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Argentinos JRS and 0.68 for Tigre, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Argentinos JRS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Argentinos JRS win
50.6% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Argentinos JRS home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tigre away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.1%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–011.5%
- 0–19.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.62 (model 64.5% vs market 57.6%, edge +6.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.62 | 57.6% | 64.5% | 1.55 | +6.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.95 | 48.6% | 49.3% | 2.03 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 4.60 | 19.8% | 19.9% | 5.03 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.4% | 29.4% | 3.40 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.80 | 50.7% | 50.6% | 1.98 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 80.2% | 80.0% | 1.25 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 71.2% | 70.5% | 1.42 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.20 | 42.4% | 35.5% | 2.82 | -6.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Argentinos JRS
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Tigre · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosario Central · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central · 0-0 (D)
Tigre
- 2026-10-10T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos JRS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Velez Sarsfield · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-04T22:15:00.000Z · Argentinos JRS 2-1 Tigre (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2026-03-16T01:00:00.000Z · Argentinos JRS 1-1 Tigre (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-07-20T19:45:00.000Z · Argentinos JRS 1-2 Tigre (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-01-31T00:30:00.000Z · Argentinos JRS 1-0 Tigre (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-07-18T21:45:00.000Z · Argentinos JRS 0-2 Tigre (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2023-03-06T00:30:00.000Z · Argentinos JRS 1-0 Tigre (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-07-12T00:30:00.000Z · Argentinos JRS 2-1 Tigre (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-05-15T19:00:00.000Z · Argentinos JRS 1-1 Tigre (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2018-11-12T20:00:00.000Z · Argentinos JRS 1-2 Tigre (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2018-02-12T22:00:00.000Z · Argentinos JRS 0-2 Tigre (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Argentinos JRS win, at 50.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.