· Analysis updated 16:31 UTC
Argentinos Juniors Res. vs Atlético Tucumán Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.77 expected goals for Argentinos Juniors Res. and 0.67 for Atlético Tucumán Res., a combined total of 1.45. That distribution gives Argentinos Juniors Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 38%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 18% for over 2.5 goals and 26% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 24%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.6% probability
Expected goals
0.77 – 0.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Argentinos Juniors Res. home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Tucumán Res. away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 34% / 38% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.77 goals for Argentinos Juniors Res. and 0.67 for Atlético Tucumán Res., a combined 1.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
63%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–023.6%
- 1–018.2%
- 0–115.9%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–07.0%
Recent form
Argentinos Juniors Res.
- 2026-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigre Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo Res. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Platense Res. · 2-0 (W)
Atlético Tucumán Res.
- 2026-10-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Córdoba Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Banfield Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Córdoba SdE Res. · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 26% and over 2.5 goals at 18%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.