· Analysis updated 00:01 UTC
Argentinos Juniors Res. vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.62 expected goals for Argentinos Juniors Res. and 0.80 for Gimnasia La Plata Res., a combined total of 1.42. That distribution gives Gimnasia La Plata Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 38%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 17% for over 2.5 goals and 25% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 24%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.5% probability
Expected goals
0.62 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Argentinos Juniors Res. home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnasia La Plata Res. away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
62%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–024.2%
- 0–119.4%
- 1–015.0%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–27.8%
Recent form
Argentinos Juniors Res.
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo Res. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Platense Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs River Plate Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Res. · 1-4 (L)
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigre Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes La Plata Res · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs River Plate Res. · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-13T18:00:00.000Z · Argentinos Juniors Res. 0-0 Gimnasia La Plata Res. (Reserve League)
- 2026-03-02T20:00:00.000Z · Argentinos Juniors Res. 1-1 Gimnasia La Plata Res. (Reserve League)
- 2025-11-27T20:00:00.000Z · Argentinos Juniors Res. 0-4 Gimnasia La Plata Res. (Reserve League)
- 2024-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · Argentinos Juniors Res. 1-2 Gimnasia La Plata Res. (Reserve League)
- 2024-03-15T17:00:00.000Z · Argentinos Juniors Res. 0-2 Gimnasia La Plata Res. (Reserve League)
- 2023-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · Argentinos Juniors Res. 2-2 Gimnasia La Plata Res. (Reserve League)
- 2023-04-20T14:00:00.000Z · Argentinos Juniors Res. 3-0 Gimnasia La Plata Res. (Reserve League)
- 2022-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · Argentinos Juniors Res. 1-1 Gimnasia La Plata Res. (Reserve League)
- 2022-03-03T12:00:00.000Z · Argentinos Juniors Res. 0-1 Gimnasia La Plata Res. (Reserve League)
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 25% and over 2.5 goals at 17%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.