· Analysis updated 00:58 UTC
Argentinos Juniors Res. vs River Plate Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Argentinos Juniors Res. and 1.38 for River Plate Res., a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives River Plate Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
River Plate Res. win
47.9% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Argentinos Juniors Res. home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
River Plate Res. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.1%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–010.3%
- 0–29.7%
- 1–09.3%
Recent form
Argentinos Juniors Res.
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo Res. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Platense Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs River Plate Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Res. · 1-4 (L)
River Plate Res.
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Res. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-01T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors Res. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos Juniors Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-08T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi Res. · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · Argentinos Juniors Res. 0-0 River Plate Res. (Reserve League)
- 2026-04-16T18:00:00.000Z · Argentinos Juniors Res. 0-0 River Plate Res. (Reserve League)
- 2024-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · Argentinos Juniors Res. 3-0 River Plate Res. (Reserve League)
- 2024-04-18T18:00:00.000Z · Argentinos Juniors Res. 0-1 River Plate Res. (Reserve League)
- 2023-08-15T22:00:00.000Z · Argentinos Juniors Res. 2-1 River Plate Res. (Reserve League)
- 2023-02-09T12:00:00.000Z · Argentinos Juniors Res. 0-1 River Plate Res. (Reserve League)
- 2022-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · Argentinos Juniors Res. 0-1 River Plate Res. (Reserve League)
- 2022-04-09T13:00:00.000Z · Argentinos Juniors Res. 0-0 River Plate Res. (Reserve League)
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is River Plate Res. win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.