Arges Pitesti vs Dinamo Bucuresti Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Arges Pitesti and 1.55 for Dinamo Bucuresti, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Dinamo Bucuresti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Dinamo Bucuresti win

59.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.63 – 1.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Arges Pitesti home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Bucuresti away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Arges Pitesti win15%

Draw25%

Dinamo Bucuresti win60%

Double chance 1X

40%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

85%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

0–117.6%
0–213.6%
0–011.4%
1–111.0%
1–28.5%

Recent form

Arges Pitesti

2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Uta Arad · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Cluj · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Slatina · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-30T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Cetate Deva · 2-1 (W)

Dinamo Bucuresti

2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Farul Constanta · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Csikszereda · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs FCSB · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Lieşti · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Corvinul Hunedoara · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · Arges Pitesti 1-2 Dinamo Bucuresti (Liga I)
2026-04-04T16:30:00.000Z · Arges Pitesti 1-1 Dinamo Bucuresti (Liga I)
2026-03-01T16:00:00.000Z · Arges Pitesti 1-0 Dinamo Bucuresti (Liga I)
2025-10-24T17:30:00.000Z · Arges Pitesti 1-1 Dinamo Bucuresti (Liga I)
2023-06-03T18:00:00.000Z · Arges Pitesti 4-2 Dinamo Bucuresti (Liga I)
2023-05-29T17:00:00.000Z · Arges Pitesti 1-6 Dinamo Bucuresti (Liga I)
2022-01-21T18:00:00.000Z · Arges Pitesti 2-1 Dinamo Bucuresti (Liga I)
2021-10-26T18:00:00.000Z · Arges Pitesti 2-1 Dinamo Bucuresti (Cupa României)
2021-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · Arges Pitesti 2-0 Dinamo Bucuresti (Liga I)
2021-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · Arges Pitesti 1-2 Dinamo Bucuresti (Liga I)

Liga I table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dinamo Bucuresti	13	9	3	1	20	30
2	Rapid	13	8	3	2	8	27
3	Universitatea Craiova	12	8	2	2	18	26
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	13	7	2	4	1	23
5	Universitatea Cluj	13	7	1	5	5	22
6	FCSB	13	6	3	4	1	21
7	Farul Constanta	13	5	5	3	1	20
8	Uta Arad	13	5	3	5	-1	18
9	CFR 1907 Cluj	13	5	2	6	-1	17
10	Corvinul Hunedoara	13	4	4	5	-2	16
11	FC Botosani	13	3	5	5	0	14
12	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	12	3	5	4	-5	14
13	Arges Pitesti	13	3	3	7	-6	12
14	Oţelul	13	2	5	6	-6	11
15	FC Voluntari	13	2	2	9	-16	8
16	Csikszereda	13	1	2	10	-17	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Dinamo Bucuresti win, at 59.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.