Arges Pitesti vs Farul Constanta Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Arges Pitesti and 1.13 for Farul Constanta, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Arges Pitesti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Arges Pitesti home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Farul Constanta away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arges Pitesti to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 27% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Arges Pitesti and 1.13 for Farul Constanta, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Arges Pitesti win41%

Draw27%

Farul Constanta win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.9%
1–011.4%
0–19.7%
0–08.6%
2–18.5%

Recent form

Arges Pitesti

2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Slatina · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-30T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Cetate Deva · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapid · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Botosani · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Voluntari · 0-1 (L)

Farul Constanta

2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Craiova · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Popești-Leordeni · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bucuresti · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Uta Arad · 4-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga I table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dinamo Bucuresti	12	9	2	1	20	29
2	Rapid	12	8	3	1	11	27
3	Universitatea Craiova	12	8	2	2	18	26
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	12	6	2	4	-1	20
5	Universitatea Cluj	12	6	1	5	2	19
6	FCSB	12	5	3	4	-2	18
7	Farul Constanta	12	4	5	3	0	17
8	Corvinul Hunedoara	12	4	4	4	1	16
9	CFR 1907 Cluj	12	5	1	6	-1	16
10	Uta Arad	12	4	3	5	-2	15
11	FC Botosani	12	3	5	4	2	14
12	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	12	3	5	4	-5	14
13	Arges Pitesti	12	3	3	6	-5	12
14	Oţelul	12	2	5	5	-5	11
15	FC Voluntari	12	2	2	8	-15	8
16	Csikszereda	12	0	2	10	-18	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.