· Analysis updated 13:47 UTC
Arges Pitesti vs Uta Arad Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Arges Pitesti and 1.35 for Uta Arad, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Uta Arad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arges Pitesti home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Uta Arad away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Uta Arad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 33% / 27% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Arges Pitesti and 1.35 for Uta Arad, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Arges Pitesti
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Slatina · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-30T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Cetate Deva · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapid · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Botosani · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Voluntari · 0-1 (L)
Uta Arad
- 2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Botosani · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Farul Constanta · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Csikszereda · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Minerul Lupeni · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Rapid | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | FCSB | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 | FC Botosani | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 12 | Uta Arad | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -18 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.