· Analysis updated 16:59 UTC
Aris Filiates vs Levante Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.74 expected goals for Aris Filiates and 0.88 for Levante, a combined total of 3.62. That distribution gives Aris Filiates the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aris Filiates win
76.3% probability
Expected goals
2.74 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aris Filiates home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aris Filiates to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 14% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.74 goals for Aris Filiates and 0.88 for Levante, a combined 3.62 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 55%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.1%
- 3–09.2%
- 2–18.8%
- 3–18.1%
- 1–07.3%
Recent form
Aris Filiates
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Agios Matthaios · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tilikratis · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Trikala · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Stavros · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Elassona · 0-1 (L)
Levante
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panegialios | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Atromitos Patras | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 10 |
| 3 | Preveza | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 4 | Panachaiki FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | Plataria | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Tilikratis | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Pallixouriakos | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Aris Filiates | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Agios Matthaios | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 10 | Lefkimmi | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 11 | Panagriniakos | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 12 | Levante | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aris Filiates win, at 76.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.