Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium · Referee Vassilis Fotias · Analysis updated 15:10 UTC
Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.75 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Aris Thessalonikis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aris Thessalonikis win
52.4% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aris Thessalonikis home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Volos NFC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aris Thessalonikis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 28% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.75 for Volos NFC, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.3%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–011.6%
- 2–011.4%
- 0–18.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.80 (model 60.2% vs market 51.5%, edge +8.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.80 | 51.5% | 60.2% | 1.66 | +8.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.05 | 46.2% | 47.6% | 2.10 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.75 | 52.1% | 52.4% | 1.91 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.6% | 27.5% | 3.64 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.50 | 20.3% | 20.1% | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 80.3% | 79.9% | 1.25 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.5% | 72.5% | 1.38 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 48.5% | 39.8% | 2.51 | -8.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Aris Thessalonikis
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Marko · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PAOK · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-10T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Asteras Tripolis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Athens FC · 0-5 (L)
Volos NFC
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris Thessalonikis · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs AEK Athens FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalamata · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Athens FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 14 |
| 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | PAOK | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 10 |
| 6 | OFI | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Iraklis 1908 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Panetolikos | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Kifisia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Kalamata | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 12 | Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 13 | Levadiakos | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aris Thessalonikis win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.