Alphamega Stadium · Referee G. Georgiou · Analysis updated 15:22 UTC
Aris vs Karmiotissa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Aris and 0.93 for Karmiotissa, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Aris the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aris win
54.5% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aris home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Karmiotissa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aris to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 24% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Aris and 0.93 for Karmiotissa, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.4%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.4%
Recent form
Aris
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Karmiotissa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Krasava Ypsonas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia Nicosia · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Limassol · 2-2 (D)
Karmiotissa
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia Aradippou · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Pafos · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Aradippou · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | AEL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 11 |
| 4 | Pafos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Apollon Limassol | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Aris | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | Apoel Nicosia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | Omonia Aradippou | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Nea Salamis | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Karmiotissa | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 13 | Anorthosis | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Krasava Ypsonas | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aris win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.