Aritma Praha vs Králův Dvůr Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Aritma Praha and 2.69 for Králův Dvůr, a combined total of 3.86. That distribution gives Králův Dvůr the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Králův Dvůr win

69.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.17 – 2.69

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Aritma Praha home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Králův Dvůr away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Králův Dvůr to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 14% / 16% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Aritma Praha and 2.69 for Králův Dvůr, a combined 3.86 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Aritma Praha win14%

Draw16%

Králův Dvůr win69%

Double chance 1X

31%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

86%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–28.9%
1–38.0%
0–27.6%
0–36.8%
1–16.6%

Recent form

Aritma Praha

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Příbram II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Admira Praha · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs České Budějovice · 0-7 (L)
2026-09-12T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Slavia III · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Motorlet Praha · 0-4 (L)

Králův Dvůr

2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs České Budějovice · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia III · 4-3 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Motorlet Praha · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-26T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Loko Vltavín · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Povltava FA · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. liga - CFL A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	České Budějovice	12	8	2	2	21	26
2	Králův Dvůr	11	8	2	1	13	26
3	Viktoria Plzeň II	11	7	2	2	11	23
4	Motorlet Praha	12	7	2	3	9	23
5	Jiskra Domažlice	12	6	3	3	2	21
6	Loko Vltavín	12	5	3	4	-2	18
7	Sparta Praha II	9	4	4	1	11	16
8	Slavia III	12	4	2	6	1	14
9	Admira Praha	12	4	2	6	-4	14
10	Příbram II	11	3	4	4	-1	13
11	Bohemians 1905 II	12	3	4	5	-5	13
12	Dukla Praha II	12	2	5	5	-3	11
13	Písek	11	2	5	4	-7	11
14	Benešov	11	2	4	5	-8	10
15	Aritma Praha	12	1	6	5	-17	9
16	Povltava FA	12	0	2	10	-21	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Králův Dvůr win, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.