Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Bytom Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.85 expected goals for Arka Gdynia and 1.33 for Polonia Bytom, a combined total of 4.18. That distribution gives Arka Gdynia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Arka Gdynia win

68.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.85 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Arka Gdynia home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Polonia Bytom away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arka Gdynia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 16% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.85 goals for Arka Gdynia and 1.33 for Polonia Bytom, a combined 4.18 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Arka Gdynia win69%

Draw16%

Polonia Bytom win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

31%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals60%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

2–18.3%
3–17.9%
2–06.2%
3–05.9%
1–15.8%

Recent form

Arka Gdynia

2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Nieciecza · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Gdansk · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Warszawa · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Goteborg · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń Siedlce · 1-2 (L)

Polonia Bytom

2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Unia Skierniewice · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Chrobry Głogów · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Puszcza Niepołomice · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Raków Częstochowa · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ruch Chorzów · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · Arka Gdynia 1-1 Polonia Bytom (I Liga)
2023-11-08T17:00:00.000Z · Arka Gdynia 3-1 Polonia Bytom (Cup)

I Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	12	6	3	3	8	21
2	Ruch Chorzów	12	6	3	3	5	21
3	Polonia Warszawa	12	6	3	3	5	21
4	Nieciecza	12	6	2	4	2	20
5	Lechia Gdansk	12	6	1	5	3	19
6	Miedz Legnica	12	5	3	4	7	18
7	Warta Poznań	11	6	0	5	4	18
8	ŁKS Łódź	11	5	3	3	3	18
9	Polonia Bytom	12	4	6	2	0	18
10	Stal Rzeszów	12	5	2	5	-6	17
11	Pogoń Siedlce	12	4	3	5	-1	15
12	Arka Gdynia	12	4	2	6	0	14
13	Podbeskidzie	12	2	8	2	-1	14
14	Chrobry Głogów	12	3	4	5	-2	13
15	Stal Mielec	12	3	4	5	-11	13
16	Puszcza Niepołomice	12	4	0	8	-4	12
17	Odra Opole	12	3	3	6	-5	12
18	Unia Skierniewice	12	3	2	7	-7	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Arka Gdynia win, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.