Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Arka Gdynia and 1.40 for Polonia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Arka Gdynia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Arka Gdynia home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Polonia Warszawa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arka Gdynia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 25% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Arka Gdynia and 1.40 for Polonia Warszawa, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Arka Gdynia win38%

Draw25%

Polonia Warszawa win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.8%
1–08.5%
2–18.4%
0–18.3%
1–28.3%

Recent form

Arka Gdynia

2026-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Gdansk · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Warszawa · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Goteborg · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń Siedlce · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Warta Poznań · 0-3 (L)

Polonia Warszawa

2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Chrobry Głogów · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Bytom · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Stal Rzeszów · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Polkowice · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

I Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	12	6	3	3	8	21
2	Ruch Chorzów	12	6	3	3	5	21
3	Polonia Warszawa	12	6	3	3	5	21
4	Nieciecza	12	6	2	4	2	20
5	Lechia Gdansk	12	6	1	5	3	19
6	Miedz Legnica	12	5	3	4	7	18
7	Warta Poznań	11	6	0	5	4	18
8	ŁKS Łódź	11	5	3	3	3	18
9	Polonia Bytom	12	4	6	2	0	18
10	Stal Rzeszów	12	5	2	5	-6	17
11	Pogoń Siedlce	12	4	3	5	-1	15
12	Arka Gdynia	12	4	2	6	0	14
13	Podbeskidzie	12	2	8	2	-1	14
14	Chrobry Głogów	12	3	4	5	-2	13
15	Stal Mielec	12	3	4	5	-11	13
16	Puszcza Niepołomice	12	4	0	8	-4	12
17	Odra Opole	12	3	3	6	-5	12
18	Unia Skierniewice	12	3	2	7	-7	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.