· Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
Arkadag vs Merw Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.13 expected goals for Arkadag and 0.65 for Merw, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Arkadag the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Arkadag win
85.3% probability
Expected goals
3.13 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arkadag home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Merw away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arkadag to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 85%, against 85% / 10% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.13 goals for Arkadag and 0.65 for Merw, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
15%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–011.7%
- 2–011.2%
- 4–09.1%
- 3–17.6%
- 2–17.3%
Recent form
Arkadag
- 2026-08-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aşgabat · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Altyn Asyr · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-16T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Ahal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Goa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Merw · 7-0 (W)
Merw
- 2026-08-06T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Arkadag · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-06-20T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Şagadam · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Köpetdag Aşgabat · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Altyn Asyr · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Aşgabat · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ýokary Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkadag | 24 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 72 |
| 2 | Altyn Asyr | 21 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 47 |
| 3 | Ahal | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 42 |
| 4 | Şagadam | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -16 | 22 |
| 5 | Nebitci | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -18 | 22 |
| 6 | Merw | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -36 | 18 |
| 7 | Aşgabat | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 15 |
| 8 | Köpetdag Aşgabat | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -30 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arkadag win, at 85.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 85% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.