· Analysis updated 14:26 UTC
Arkadag vs Nebitci Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.09 expected goals for Arkadag and 0.40 for Nebitci, a combined total of 4.49. That distribution gives Arkadag the largest share of the 1X2 market at 95%, with the draw at 4%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 95% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Arkadag win
94.9% probability
Expected goals
4.09 – 0.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arkadag home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nebitci away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arkadag to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 95%, against 95% / 4% / 1% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.09 goals for Arkadag and 0.40 for Nebitci, a combined 4.49 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
99%
Double chance 12
96%
Double chance X2
5%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–013.1%
- 3–012.8%
- 5–010.7%
- 2–09.4%
- 6–07.3%
Recent form
Arkadag
- 2026-08-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aşgabat · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Altyn Asyr · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-16T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Ahal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Goa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Merw · 7-0 (W)
Nebitci
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Şagadam · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Altyn Asyr · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Ahal · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Arkadag · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Köpetdag Aşgabat · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ýokary Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkadag | 24 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 72 |
| 2 | Altyn Asyr | 21 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 47 |
| 3 | Ahal | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 42 |
| 4 | Şagadam | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -16 | 22 |
| 5 | Nebitci | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -18 | 22 |
| 6 | Merw | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -36 | 18 |
| 7 | Aşgabat | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 15 |
| 8 | Köpetdag Aşgabat | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -30 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arkadag win, at 94.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 95% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.